If it's one of the filter caps, there's two ways to know. 1. High voltage capacitor tester, which most people don't have. 2. Take caps out of circuit, tack in new ones (different values are okay for now, as long as they can stand the voltage).
Note, however, that it has been observed that the problem only happens with the power tubes installed. This might indicate the following: 1. It has to do with the power tubes themselves but if I remember correctly different pairs have been tried. 2. It has to do with circuitry associated with the power tubes. A. This could something like oscillation happening in the power amp, but i guess removing preamp tubes or disconnecting nfb should affect this, which apparently it doesn't. Can you conform this? B. It could also be a physical problem. Look carefully at the rear of the sockets when you insert and remove the tubes (Amp off). Anything touching anything? getting really close? Any dirt/gunk/deposit on the sockets? burn marks? Take closup pics. C. It could also have to do with the power tubes' current draw and a possibly associated thermal issue (although you say there are no signs of heat). When it happens, do all voltages go down, e.g. preamp? And have you by any chance measured the ac at the pt secondary (at input of recitifier)? Does it also go low?