> amount of voltage, especially since it's always fluctuating
In theory, he should use the Voltage Gain of the forward path. This is (nearly) consistent, whereas the instantaneous voltage does vary.
However voltage gain around power tube and OT is tedious to compute.
In many practical cases, you can just throw "0.5" as the gain from power tube grid to typical speaker load.
If you want to get tedious: yes, start with the expected output voltage. Then look at the expected voltage at power tube grid. Since we normally take NFB to the stage before, estimate that stage's gain.
This assumes direct path from driver to power tube. If you put volume or tone networks between, the problem becomes too large for the back of an envelope. Also there is intense interaction between tone settings and NFB. Such schemes must be tweaked by ear.
5F1 Champ, 6W out, 4 ohms, about 5Vrms or 7V peak. Cathode bias is 18V and normally the peak signal is equal to bias. So 18V in, 7V out, gain is 0.39.
NFB in 5F1 is injected to 12AX7 V1b. Normal values except no cathode cap. Assume gain is 25.
25*0.39= gain of 10.
22K and 1.5K NFB values is a loss of 16.
So this amp has "hardly any" NFB on nominal load.
However the "4 ohm" load is a speaker which will bump-up to maybe 25 ohms at bass resonance. 6V6 gain will also bump-up nearly as much. So at bass resonance the 6V6+OT gain is more like 2, driver gain still 25, overall gain is 50. NFB is still 16:1. The NFB _IS_ effective at bass resonance.
That's probably how many good guitar amps are. NFB is very slight at nominal load, but (because of rising gain) more effective at bass resonance. This keeps the cone from getting over-excited at bass resonance, less slap.
So it is VERY much about the speaker. Which is yet another reason to rough-in ballpark values, get the amp working, try different speakers for possible use, THEN re-consider the NFB values.