> It will be hottest when dropping maximum voltage.
> .....the amp as a whole draws essentially the same power(*) regardless of the VVR setting.
No. If the VVR goes to -zero- volts, the tube current will go essentially to zero.
(You may try this on any handy open amp. Put 100K 2W across the standby switch. B+ will drop to 20V-10V. Measure tube current-- it has dropped from 50-150mA down to 4mA, nearly zero.)
(Most VVRs "stop" the B+ before zero. The tone below 10%-5% of full voltage may be very bad, nobody needs _that_ little power, it is best not to have nasty-zones on a knob, so it may not turn-down past 30V or so. That's still so small it does not change the analysis.)
At zero current there is zero dissipation in either amp or VVR FET.
Worst-case must be in-the-middle.
If the amplifier acted like a pure resistor, the worst-case is clear: half voltage.
Tubes run more as 3/2 law. Half voltage *tends* to be one-thrird (0.35) of current. However this is complicated by bias (cathode resistor or voltage-bias). K-resistor tends to make the tube more like a resistor. FIXED bias will make the tube cut-off very quickly if G2 is dropped while G1 stays the same. Practical "fix" bias VVRs shift the G1 bias "somewhat like" the change of G2 voltage, which may be more like 3/2 law, or not, depending on details. (It would be reasonable to change G1 less than G2, leave the tube relatively richer at low power where tube heat is not an issue.)
> turning it down only slightly is hottest - thoughts?
The worst-case is very broad. We don't have to worry about the slight curvature. Set the VVR output at half-voltage. If this is a 400V max amp, dial it to 200V. It should play at the 10W level. Since this is a fix-bias amp, after verifying a happy idle, BEAT it to force 15W-20W fuzzztone out of the honest 10 Watts. Then check MOSFET temperature.
BEWARE!! The MOSFET is at 400V and 200V. Fatal voltages!! In my younger days, I'd rig a rapid discharge and watch the voltmeter fall down below 50V, then stick my finger on the hot-part. If you do this wrong, you get a serious shock. These days $20-$50 buys a perfectly fine IR non-contact thermometer, a much better plan.
It is good to touch the *grounded* heatsink for temperature. However if you didn't get the mounting just-right (warp in the heatsink, dirt in the white goop) the sink can be cool while the MOSFET is cooking.