HBP,
You nailed it. Somewhere in the mists of pandemic time, I'd swapped in a 5751 in the first position and forgotten about it until you brought it up. Sorry for all the extra work I made for you; I've given myself 50 demerits.

Using a known good GE 12AX7 I got these new values: Vg = 1.27, Vs = 278, and Vp = 192
Following your method (I think), I get: 278V - 192V = 86V drop across Rp
General rule: [ Ia = (Vs - Vp)/Rp ]
86V
----- = 0.86mA = Ia
100K
a) 1.27V/1.5K = 0.85mA (check)
b) 0.85mA * 100K = 84.67V / ~85V (check)
c) 278V - 85V = 193V (check)
So, 193V is close to my observed plate voltage of 192V. My load line calculations:
Plate load line: 278 / 100K = ~2.78mA. So, endpoints of (0mA, 278V) and (2.78mA, 0V) for the load line.
Cathode load line: 1V / 1.5 ohm = 0.67mA, 1.5V / 1.5K ohm = 1.0mA, 2V / 1.5K ohm = 1.3mA
Here's a new plot. Blue dot is measured bias point, Green is cathode load line, purple lines are dropped from the intersection of the plate loadline and the cathode loadline, and orange show the point intersected by the actual measured values. None of these line up exactly, but if they look reasonable to you within the range of tube variance, that's good enough for me.
Sorry again for the wild-goose chase!