Probably not worth the effort for a formula.
It
is worth the effort. The problem is that there is no such thing as a
simple formula to find the answer.
The bias circuit is roughly the same problem as you find with figuring the d.c. output of the main rectifier in the amp's power supply.
O.H. Schade (the guy that wrote up how 6L6's work, and likely invented them) did a bunch of research and compiled graphs to assist in answering this same question with regard to the B+ supply. The charts and the method are given in RDH4, and there's maybe 6-7 charts that you have to work through, one at a time. His "easy method" ain't as easy as you'd like.
And guess what? Of the many variables that you have to juggle, the resistance presented by the PT's primary winding (plus any series resistance) is one of the significant ones. And that resistance is tiny compared to the input resistor in a bias circuit (meaning it doesn't have as much impact on the B+ supply as it does in the bias supply).
... but doing the math on the "other side" of the circuit (220k/15k) the math is wrong. That's what I'm struggling to understand how to figure out the voltage dropacross the first 220k and 15k resistors.
If you want to do the math on the other side of the circuit, you probably need some trigonometry, some vector algebra and some calculus.
In a d.c. circuit, voltage and current are in phase and are constant at all times (we'll neglect step/transient analysis); additionally, you mostly think only of linear resistances. In an a.c. circuit, voltage and current are not in phase. Plus, you have a non-linear circuit element: a rectifier diode. The a.c. cannot be thought of in terms of RMS (as you typically know it: a.c. voltage * 0.7071), because the diode turns the a.c. into pulsating voltage and current, which charges the caps on the "d.c. side" of the rectifier and pulls pulses of current through the rectifier which are not solely related to the incoming a.c. voltage.
Strictly, RMS works, but the difference is that the waveshape is different, and so the normal conversion factors don't hold. The calculus part comes in when you need to calculate the effective amount of d.c. represented by the current pulses, so that you can conveniently calculate.
In any event, the rectifier's effect comes into play, the resulting waveshape, the size of the capacitors, the degree to which voltage and current are out of phase due to the balance of reactive and resistive components, and the amount of resistance on both sides of the rectifier (considered separately and with different effects). All of these considerations are why there is no one simple formula, why O.H. Schade's method had so many steps and graphs, and why PRR's suggestion of cut-n-try works faster than calculation.
It's also why he suggested, if you want calculated numbers before getting the soldering iron hot, that you tinker with the power supply simulator. Let someone else do the hard math for you.